{
  "satire": true,
  "notice": "A work of fiction. Not a forecast.",
  "version": "2.4",
  "base": "2026-01-02",
  "value": 53,
  "prev": 42.4,
  "change": 10.6,
  "yoy": 14.1,
  "date": "2026-09-09",
  "hi": 53,
  "lo": 38.9,
  "ma4": 44.5,
  "ma12": 44.7,
  "se": 2.2,
  "significant": true,
  "weeks": 36,
  "history": [
    {
      "date": "2026-01-07",
      "value": 38.9
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-01-14",
      "value": 41.6
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-01-21",
      "value": 42.4
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-01-28",
      "value": 41.7
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-02-04",
      "value": 42.5
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-02-11",
      "value": 44
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-02-18",
      "value": 44.6
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-02-25",
      "value": 46.3
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-03-04",
      "value": 47
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-03-11",
      "value": 45.3
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-03-18",
      "value": 45.7
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-03-25",
      "value": 44.7
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-01",
      "value": 43
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-08",
      "value": 43.9
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-15",
      "value": 45.2
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-22",
      "value": 45.2
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-29",
      "value": 46.4
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-06",
      "value": 45.3
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-13",
      "value": 47.8
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-20",
      "value": 47
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-27",
      "value": 45.6
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-03",
      "value": 44
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-10",
      "value": 44.5
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-17",
      "value": 47.1
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-24",
      "value": 47.1
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-01",
      "value": 46.4
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-08",
      "value": 47.6
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-15",
      "value": 45.6
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-22",
      "value": 44.5
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-29",
      "value": 43.4
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-05",
      "value": 42.4
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-12",
      "value": 41.3
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-19",
      "value": 40.4
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-26",
      "value": 42.1
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-02",
      "value": 42.4
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-09",
      "value": 53
    }
  ],
  "components": [
    {
      "id": "CAP",
      "name": "Capability Overhang",
      "weight": 22,
      "inverted": false,
      "what": "The gap between what the systems can already do and what anyone has got round to noticing.",
      "method": "Measured as the lag, in months, between a capability first appearing in a paper and it appearing in a procurement document. Scaled so that a lag of zero scores 0 and a lag of eighteen months scores 100.",
      "note": "Our largest single weight, and the one we would most like to reduce.",
      "level": 54.5,
      "change": 18.2,
      "contribution": 12,
      "impulse": 4
    },
    {
      "id": "ALN",
      "name": "Alignment Deficit",
      "weight": 19,
      "inverted": false,
      "what": "The distance between published safety commitments and the shipping schedule.",
      "method": "Word count of stated principles divided by the number of those principles for which a named individual is accountable. Log-transformed, because the raw series is not usable.",
      "note": "The denominator has been zero on four occasions. The series is undefined for those weeks and has been interpolated.",
      "level": 60.6,
      "change": 16.8,
      "contribution": 11.5,
      "impulse": 3.2
    },
    {
      "id": "GOV",
      "name": "Institutional Response Lag",
      "weight": 16,
      "inverted": false,
      "what": "How long it takes a body created to respond to something to respond to something.",
      "method": "Median elapsed time between a committee being convened and the same committee being reconvened. Winsorised at the 95th percentile to keep one particular committee from dominating the index.",
      "note": "Seasonally adjusted for the summer recess, which has been extended twice.",
      "level": 41.8,
      "change": 1.3,
      "contribution": 6.7,
      "impulse": 0.2
    },
    {
      "id": "CON",
      "name": "Compute Concentration",
      "weight": 12,
      "inverted": false,
      "what": "Who owns the machines, and how few of them there are.",
      "method": "A Herfindahl-Hirschman index across owners of frontier-scale capacity, normalised to 0 to 100.",
      "note": "Rises when capacity concentrates into fewer hands. Also rose in the one quarter when it did not, for reasons the model has not been able to explain and we have not removed.",
      "level": 57.8,
      "change": 13.8,
      "contribution": 6.9,
      "impulse": 1.7
    },
    {
      "id": "DIS",
      "name": "Discourse Degradation",
      "weight": 9,
      "inverted": false,
      "what": "The share of the argument now being conducted by people who have not read the thing.",
      "method": "Estimated from citation depth in public commentary. A citation to a summary of a summary is counted at one quarter weight.",
      "note": "This component is the only one that has never fallen.",
      "level": 50.2,
      "change": -5.6,
      "contribution": 4.5,
      "impulse": -0.5
    },
    {
      "id": "EQU",
      "name": "Public Equanimity",
      "weight": 8,
      "inverted": true,
      "what": "How calm everybody is about all of this.",
      "method": "A survey series, entered into the model inverted. High equanimity lowers the reading; very high equanimity raises it again above the 80th percentile.",
      "note": "The reversal above the 80th percentile is not a modelling error. Calm past a point is the finding, not the comfort.",
      "level": 49.1,
      "change": -13.8,
      "contribution": 4.1,
      "impulse": 1.1
    },
    {
      "id": "EXE",
      "name": "Executive Calm",
      "weight": 7,
      "inverted": false,
      "what": "The composure of the people who would actually know.",
      "method": "Coded from public appearances on a five-point scale by two independent raters. Inter-rater reliability is 0.91, which is higher than we expected and than we would like.",
      "note": "Historically our single best predictor at a four-week horizon. We do not enjoy that and we have twice attempted to remove it. It is still here.",
      "level": 46.3,
      "change": -5.3,
      "contribution": 3.2,
      "impulse": -0.4
    },
    {
      "id": "SUB",
      "name": "Substitution Rate",
      "weight": 7,
      "inverted": false,
      "what": "Work performed this week by something that does not eat.",
      "method": "Share of measured task-hours in the reference basket completed without a person present. Reported one week in arrears.",
      "note": "The reference basket was last revised in March and no longer contains three of its original occupations.",
      "level": 57.8,
      "change": 19.2,
      "contribution": 4,
      "impulse": 1.3
    }
  ],
  "why": "A province changed its name without incident, which the panel accepted as evidence that consultation is optional at any scale.",
  "weightTotal": 100
}